- Bitcoin is now battling an obstacle around $95k amid the hike in retail sell-offs
- Key price and validation models projected BTC could hit $150k-$200k in 2025
Bitcoin [BTC] has extended its price consolidation around $95k for nearly a week so far. In fact, according to Swissblock analysts, the $95k roadblock is a break-even level for most retail, and they might just be cashing out too.
“The $94K–$95K wall holds $BTC back. A pullback looms, but once retail stops, we’ll break through”
Source: Swissblock
On the contrary, most analysts like Mathew Hyland believe that Bitcoin’s bulls have more market leverage. He cited the weekly candlestick close on the daily price chart, which was above the previous range-low of $92k.
Now, assuming they’re right, how far can BTC climb in 2025?
Charting BTC’s next peak
According to a pseudonymous analyst Onchain College, BTC’s rally could extend to above $200k per Bitcoin Delta Cap. This metric uses historical, on-chain, and technical data to project likely market tops on the charts.
Source: BM Pro
It has marked past cycle tops with fair accuracy. If history repeats itself, the next cycle peak could be around $210k.
Other valuation models, including the Bitcoin Quantile, projected a similar scenario of a +$200k price target.
However, for the Pi Cycle Top indicator, the potential market top could be around $150k-$180k if the current cycle peaks towards the end of 2025.
Source: BM Pro
Despite the difference in targets, the models leaned towards potential growth for BTC. A similar insight was seen on another valuation metric – BTC True MVRV.
The metric retreated after hitting a local peak around 2, which coincided with BTC’s price stalling at $109k. The same level marked the early 2024 local top.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s recent recovery followed the metric’s rebound at 1.4, similar to last September’s move.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, cycle peaks have always been flagged by a True MVRV value of 3 and above. The press time MVRV reading was 1.6, meaning BTC has more room to expand based on past trends.
Worth noting though that some analysts still believe that BTC’s four-year cycle might be distorted, given the pace of institutional adoption in the market. If so, the projections shared by the aforementioned models should be taken with a grain of salt.